How can we use land to best support nature and people?
More land may be needed for food and energy production to meet sustainability and equity goals, but these land uses can interfere with the natural areas that support biodiversity and human well-being. Climate change will shift how species live: as areas get hotter or precipitation patterns change, many plants and animals will no longer be able to survive in their traditional range. Their shifts may result in species no longer thriving within the conservation areas that were originally designed to protect them, placing the effectiveness of conservation investments at risk.
To ensure conservation and natural climate solutions are long-lasting, it is important to consider information about the future, such as future development and climate change. Strategic planning that considers these changes can reduce extinction risk for species and ensure the continuation of valuable ecosystem services, all while making space for the land required to sustainably support the population.
Climate change and rising human population and consumption will make sustainable land use planning more complex.
Where are species now, and where might they shift under climate change?
This project utilizes species models developed in a previous GEF-funded Conservation International project called Spatial Planning for Conservation in Response to Climate Change, or SPARC (www.sparc-website.org). In SPARC, researchers modeled climate change-driven shifts for over 17,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles. These models illuminate areas of conservation importance to protect species based on not only where they are now, but where they may need to shift under climate change.
Below are maps of species richness (the number of species that overlap in each location) based on these models that reflect current biodiversity and where it may shift under climate change. Toggle the layers in the upper right corner of the map to compare the baseline and future data.